purpose to develop an econometric model for the
Brazilian States (or five geographical regions) was
to clarify the contribution of tourism as an
economic factor. This required some preliminary
wants this model?
will use it?
Which will be the technical platform to use it?
should be the benefit of the model?
Which are the data available to elaborate the model?
Which are the technical necessities to elaborate the
some of the questions no reliable answer was
possible, especially not from a technical consultant
who is not familiar with the general conditions of
the country involved and the special circumstances
of the organization the project management has to
cooperate with, since he was not involved in the
project definition and preparation.
model was developed for the benefit of the State
Tourist Organizations. They should be enabled to use
this model in their effort to promote the tourist
trade in the different regions and states.
persons to use it would be in the first place the
staff members of these organizations, whereas the
persons to be informed about the subjects dealt with
in the model, would be decision makers,
entrepreneurs in the tourist business in the first
place, economists, statisticians, people interested
in tourism, econometry, statistics, modelling etc.
in the second place.
technical platform should be a lean as possible
without sacrificing the possibilities of advanced
benefit of the model should be simple and
interactive use of its facilities. The model user
should be enabled to see past influences and reasons
of the development of economical indicators. The
model should enable the user to project future
developments of economical events in a reasonable
data available for the elaboration of the model
proved to be rather inhomogeneous for the different
states. There have been economical censuses however
in an interval of 5 years in the past, which can be
considered a reliable and consistent data base.
Unfortunately the 1990 census was denied financing
by the Collor-Government. The next census however is
scheduled for 1995 and should considerably improve
the data situation as far as economical data are
concerned. The situation about tourism data is
different from state to state. Whereas the data
about international tourists are rather homogeneous
(EMBRATUR conducts a regular survey three times a
year, countrywide since 1985) the data about
Brazilian tourists in the states depend on the
efforts of the state tourist’s organization. Some
states have never conducted any survey (like
but there was once a survey about tourism in the
city), other have just started (Distrito Federal),
others have conducted surveys for some years to find
out about the demand of national tourists within the